Terms of Use
Please read these terms carefully before using the site.
These Terms of Use ("Terms") are a legal agreement between you and RateProbability Inc., a corporation incorporated under the Canada Business Corporations Act ("RateProbability," "we," "us," or "our"). By accessing or using rateprobability.com (the "Site"), you agree to be bound by these Terms. If you do not agree, please do not use the Site.
1. No investment advice
All content on the Site is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing on the Site constitutes investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security, derivative, or financial instrument. The Site is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, or financial planner.
You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions. If you require advice, you should consult a qualified financial professional. Past implied-rate paths or probability readings do not predict future central bank actions.
2. Site data and information
The Site derives implied paths and probabilities for central bank policy rates from overnight index swap (OIS) market data sourced from third-party data providers. The derived calculations, models, and analytical outputs displayed on the Site are the proprietary work product of RateProbability. This information may:
- Be delayed, incomplete, or simplified for presentation.
- Change without notice as economic conditions and market pricing evolve.
- Differ from calculations performed by other providers using different methodologies, data sources, or assumptions.
We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any data or calculations on the Site. You assume all risk associated with your use of and reliance on such information.
3. Account registration
You may create an account to access certain features of the Site. By creating an account, you represent and agree that:
- You are at least 18 years of age and have the legal capacity to enter into these Terms.
- The information you provide during registration is accurate and complete.
- You are responsible for maintaining the confidentiality of your account credentials.
- You are responsible for all activity that occurs under your account.
- You will not share, transfer, or sell access to your account to any other person.
You must notify us promptly at [email protected] if you become aware of any unauthorized use of your account.
4. Paid subscriptions and billing
Certain features of the Site are available only through a paid subscription (the "Trader" tier). By subscribing to a paid plan, you agree to the following:
- Recurring charges. Subscriptions are billed on a recurring basis (monthly or annually, depending on the plan you select). By providing a payment method, you authorize us to charge the applicable subscription fee at the beginning of each billing cycle.
- Auto-renewal. Your subscription will automatically renew at the end of each billing period until you cancel. You may cancel at any time through your account's subscription management portal.
- Payment processing. All payments are processed by Stripe, Inc. ("Stripe"). By subscribing, you also agree to Stripe's Services Agreement. We do not store your credit card number or full payment details on our servers.
- Taxes. Subscription fees are exclusive of applicable taxes (including VAT, GST, and sales tax), which will be calculated and collected at checkout where required by law.
- Price changes. We may change subscription pricing from time to time. Any price increase will take effect at the start of your next billing cycle following at least 30 days' advance notice by email.
- Failed payments. If a payment fails, we may retry the charge. If payment cannot be collected after reasonable attempts, we may suspend or downgrade your account to the free tier.
5. Cancellation and refunds
You may cancel your subscription at any time through the subscription management portal accessible from your account page. Upon cancellation:
- Your paid access will continue until the end of the current billing period.
- You will not be charged for subsequent billing periods.
- Your account will revert to the free tier at the end of the paid period.
Subscription fees are non-refundable. No prorated refunds or credits will be issued for partial billing periods, except where required by applicable law.
6. Free and paid tiers
The Site offers both a free tier and a paid Trader tier. The free tier provides periodic data snapshots (updated several times daily) for a subset of supported central banks. The Trader tier provides near-real-time data updates, additional central bank coverage, and access to additional features.
We reserve the right to modify, add, or remove features from either tier at any time. If we materially reduce Trader-tier functionality, we will provide subscribers with reasonable advance notice.
7. Account suspension and termination
We reserve the right to suspend, limit, or terminate your account at our discretion if we reasonably believe you have:
- Violated these Terms.
- Engaged in abusive, fraudulent, or harmful behaviour.
- Used the Site in a manner that could expose RateProbability to legal liability or that violates the rights of any third party, including our data providers.
If your paid account is terminated for cause, no refund will be issued for the remaining billing period. If we terminate your account without cause, we will refund any prepaid fees on a prorated basis.
You may delete your account at any time through your account settings or by contacting us. Upon deletion, your personal information will be removed in accordance with our Privacy Policy.
8. No warranty
The Site and all content, data, and services provided through it are offered on an "as is" and "as available" basis. To the fullest extent permitted by law, we disclaim all warranties, express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of accuracy, reliability, merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement.
Without limiting the foregoing, we do not warrant that the Site will be uninterrupted, error-free, or free of harmful components, or that any data will be accurate or timely.
9. Limitation of liability
To the fullest extent permitted by law, RateProbability and its officers, directors, employees, and affiliates will not be liable for any indirect, incidental, consequential, special, or punitive damages arising out of or relating to your use of the Site, including but not limited to:
- Trading losses or foregone gains.
- Decisions made or actions taken based on information from the Site.
- Interruptions, errors, or data inaccuracies.
- Unauthorized access to or alteration of your data or transmissions.
In no event will our total aggregate liability to you for all claims arising out of or relating to these Terms or your use of the Site exceed the greater of (a) the total subscription fees you have paid to us in the twelve (12) months immediately preceding the event giving rise to the claim, or (b) one hundred Canadian dollars (CAD $100).
10. Indemnification
You agree to indemnify, defend, and hold harmless RateProbability Inc. and its officers, directors, employees, and agents from and against any claims, liabilities, damages, losses, costs, and expenses (including reasonable legal fees) arising out of or relating to: (a) your use of the Site in violation of these Terms; (b) your violation of any applicable law or regulation; or (c) your violation of any third-party rights, including intellectual property rights.
11. Acceptable use
You agree that you will not:
- Use the Site in violation of any applicable law or regulation.
- Attempt to disrupt, overload, or reverse-engineer the Site or its infrastructure.
- Scrape, harvest, or systematically download data in a way that exceeds normal browser usage.
- Attempt to reconstruct, derive, or reverse-engineer the underlying market data from the derived outputs displayed on the Site.
- Redistribute, sublicense, resell, or otherwise make available any data from the Site, whether in raw or derived form, without our prior written consent.
- Share, resell, or redistribute your account credentials or provide access to paid features to any person not covered by your subscription.
- Impersonate another person or misrepresent your affiliation with any entity.
- Use automated means (including bots, crawlers, or scraping tools) to access the Site, except as expressly permitted in writing.
12. Intellectual property
Unless otherwise indicated, the content, design, code, and visual identity of the Site are the property of RateProbability Inc. and are protected by applicable intellectual property laws. You may view the Site for personal, non-commercial use. Any other use, including reproduction, modification, redistribution, or republication, requires our prior written consent.
The derived data and analysis displayed on the Site — including implied rate probabilities, forward rate paths, and meeting-window calculations — are the proprietary work product of RateProbability. These outputs may not be scraped, copied, republished, or redistributed without permission.
13. Third-party data providers
The Site incorporates market data obtained from third-party providers, including Xignite, Inc. and its data sources. This underlying market data is the property of the respective data owners and is used by RateProbability under license solely for the purpose of producing derived analytical outputs. The underlying market data is not displayed to or redistributed to end users.
By using the Site, you acknowledge that certain third-party data may be subject to additional terms and restrictions imposed by data owners. You can review applicable third-party data restrictions at quodd.com/disclaimers.
Third-party data providers make no warranties regarding the accuracy, timeliness, completeness, or reliability of any data, and expressly disclaim all liability for any errors, omissions, or delays. You use all data at your own risk.
14. Third-party services
The Site uses the following third-party services to operate. Your use of these services is subject to their respective terms and privacy policies:
- Clerk for authentication and account management.
- Stripe for payment processing and subscription billing.
- Google for OAuth sign-in and analytics.
- Mediavine for advertising on free-tier pages.
We are not responsible for the availability, content, policies, or practices of these third parties. If you have concerns about a third-party service, you should contact that provider directly.
15. Changes to the site and these terms
We may modify or discontinue all or part of the Site at any time without notice. We may also update these Terms from time to time. The revised Terms will be effective when posted on this page, with an updated "Last updated" date. If we make material changes that affect your paid subscription, we will notify you by email at least 30 days before the changes take effect. Your continued use of the Site after the revised Terms are posted constitutes acceptance of the changes.
16. Force majeure
RateProbability will not be liable for any failure or delay in performance resulting from causes beyond our reasonable control, including but not limited to: outages or disruptions affecting our hosting infrastructure (including Cloudflare); interruptions, delays, or loss of third-party data feeds from our market data providers (including Xignite and its underlying data sources); internet service disruptions; denial-of-service attacks or other cyberattacks; failures of third-party authentication or payment processing services; acts of God; fire, flood, earthquake, or other natural disasters; epidemics or pandemics; war, terrorism, or civil unrest; government actions, sanctions, or embargoes; strikes or labour disputes; or power failures.
During any such event, your subscription will remain active but affected services may be unavailable or degraded. No refund, credit, or extension of service will be owed for any period of unavailability caused by a force majeure event. We will use commercially reasonable efforts to restore normal service as soon as practicable and to notify users of material disruptions.
17. Governing law and disputes
These Terms are governed by the laws of the Province of Ontario and the federal laws of Canada applicable therein, without regard to conflict of law principles. Any disputes arising out of or relating to these Terms or your use of the Site will be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the courts located in the Province of Ontario, Canada.
Informal resolution. Before filing any formal legal proceeding, you agree to first contact us at [email protected] with a written description of your claim and allow 30 days for us to attempt to resolve the matter. We agree to extend the same courtesy to you. This requirement applies to both parties and is a precondition to bringing any action in court.
Class action waiver. To the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, you agree that any dispute resolution proceedings will be conducted only on an individual basis and not as part of a class, consolidated, or representative action. You waive any right to participate in a class action lawsuit or class-wide arbitration against RateProbability.
18. Electronic communications
By creating an account or subscribing to the Site, you consent to receive communications from us electronically, including by email and through notices posted on the Site. You agree that all agreements, notices, disclosures, and other communications that we provide to you electronically satisfy any legal requirement that such communications be in writing. It is your responsibility to keep your email address current in your account settings.
19. General provisions
Severability. If any provision of these Terms is found to be unenforceable or invalid by a court of competent jurisdiction, the remaining provisions will continue in full force and effect.
Entire agreement. These Terms, together with our Privacy Policy, constitute the entire agreement between you and RateProbability with respect to your use of the Site and supersede any prior agreements or understandings.
Waiver. Our failure to enforce any right or provision of these Terms will not constitute a waiver of that right or provision.
Assignment. You may not assign or transfer your rights under these Terms without our prior written consent. We may assign our rights and obligations under these Terms without restriction.
Survival. The following sections will survive any termination or expiration of these Terms or your account: §1 (No investment advice), §2 (Site data and information), §5 (Cancellation and refunds), §8 (No warranty), §9 (Limitation of liability), §10 (Indemnification), §11 (Acceptable use), §12 (Intellectual property), §13 (Third-party data providers), §16 (Force majeure), §17 (Governing law and disputes), and this §19 (General provisions).
20. Contact
If you have questions about these Terms, contact us at [email protected].
RateProbability Inc.
570 Hood Road Unit 14, #1600, Markham, ON L3R 4G7, Canada