How to read this RBA rate screen
Interpreting the table and chart
Table rows correspond to Reserve Bank of Australia decision dates scheduled over the next year or so.
- Implied post-meeting rate is the expected target for the cash rate after each meeting.
- Probability of hike/cut displays an approximate probability of a cash rate move at each meeting (step size defaults to 25bps moves but can be changed in the drop-down menu).
- # of hikes/cuts shows the cumulative number of hikes/cuts expected between now and each meeting (also dependent on the step size selected).
- Δ vs current (bps) shows the cumulative change in the cash rate target priced-in between now and each meeting in basis points (+12.5bps = +0.125%).
The chart plots the implied post-meeting rate across all upcoming meetings. An upward-sloping line indicates that markets are pricing further tightening over time; a flat line suggests an extended pause; a downward-sloping line indicates expected cuts. Use the screen to see what is currently priced in and to compare today’s expectations with those from previous weeks or months.
What this page measures
When is the next RBA meeting, and what's priced in for the cash rate?
The table and chart reflect market pricing, not a forecast. When the site refers to “probabilities,” it is describing the likelihood implied by tradable instruments that reference future policy settings. In other words, it is a snapshot of consensus pricing that may be wrong and will often move as new information arrives.
The page focuses on scheduled meetings, but policy decisions can sometimes occur outside regular meetings under extraordinary circumstances. Market pricing may also reflect expectations about communication, guidance, and financial conditions even when the headline policy rate is unchanged.
What “probabilities” mean (and what they don’t)
The probabilities on this site are market-implied. They describe what is priced, not what will happen. Markets can overreact, underreact, or price scenarios that never occur. The goal is to translate market pricing into a clean, intuitive summary of expectations using a consistent step size.
Step size matters because markets may be pricing smaller adjustments, larger moves, or a mix of outcomes across meetings. The probability fields are therefore best read as approximations that help summarize pricing, rather than precise forecasts.
Meeting liveness gauge
In rates-market shorthand, a meeting is "live" when a policy move there is a realistic possibility, even if it isn't the most likely outcome. The liveness gauge applies this to the next scheduled meeting: it reads LIVE once the probability of a hike or cut (at your selected step size) reaches 25%, and DEAD below that.
There's no official threshold for "live." We use 25%, a one-in-four chance (6.25bps priced at the default 25bps step), because that is where a move stops being a long shot: by 25%, widely used probability-language scales, such as the IPCC's and those used by US and UK intelligence analysts, no longer describe an outcome as "very" or "highly" unlikely. It is still a judgment call, which is why the exact probability is always shown in the gauge's tooltip and elsewhere.
STRENGTH uses an asymmetric scale to show how firmly the meeting sits on its side of that line: STRONG under 10%, MODERATE 10–20% and WEAK 20–25% on the dead side; WEAK 25–40%, MODERATE 40–70% and STRONG 70% and above on the live side. The tooltip's Conviction score is a separate, outcome-neutral measure (the same one used on the comparison page): it is lowest at a 50/50 split and highest when pricing is near 0% or 100%.
Like every probability on this site, the gauge reflects market pricing, not a forecast. See the methodology page for the full method, the reasoning behind each cutoff, and its limitations.
Methodology summary
At a high level, the site uses interest-rate market instruments that reference future policy settings to infer an expected policy-rate path meeting-by-meeting. Those implied levels are translated into an implied post-meeting path and a cumulative change versus current, along with approximate probabilities of discrete moves based on the selected step size.
Data is updated 3x per day. If the most recent fetch is temporarily unavailable, the page may display the most recent cached values.
Note: These probabilities are derived from OIS (overnight index swap) markets, not ASX cash rate futures contracts. These instruments are closely related and often move together, but this site's calculations are OIS-based throughout.
Who this is for
This tool is useful for anyone who wants a fast, market-based read on Australian monetary-policy expectations. It is commonly used by macro and rates-focused investors, traders, and researchers, as well as professionals who monitor RBA expectations as an input into decision-making.
Typical use cases include tracking how expectations change around major data releases and central bank communication, monitoring how pricing evolves between meetings, and forming scenarios for how the expected policy path may affect assets such as bonds, FX, equities, and credit.
About the RBA
The Reserve Bank of Australia is Australia's central bank. Following 2024 amendments to the Reserve Bank Act, the Bank's overarching statutory objective is to promote the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people, both now and into the future. In pursuit of this, the Act directs the Monetary Policy Board to set policy in the way that, in the Board's opinion, best contributes to price stability and the maintenance of full employment in Australia. In practice, these objectives take the form of a flexible inflation target of 2–3% per annum, on average, alongside a full employment objective agreed with the Treasurer in the Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy. Its main tool is the cash rate target (the overnight interest rate for unsecured lending between banks), supported by balance sheet operations and forward guidance.
The cash rate target sits at the centre of a rate corridor. The Exchange Settlement (ES) balance rate, set 10 basis points below the target, is the rate the RBA pays on overnight balances held by banks in their settlement accounts. The overnight repo rate, set 25 basis points above the target, is the rate at which the RBA lends overnight against eligible collateral. Together, these rates create a floor and ceiling that keep the actual traded overnight rate (tracked by the AONIA benchmark) close to the target.
Interest rate decisions are made by the Monetary Policy Board, which comprises the Governor, the Deputy Governor, the Secretary to the Australian Treasury, and six other members appointed by the Treasurer. The Board holds eight scheduled meetings per year (roughly every five to six weeks). At each meeting the Board may leave the cash rate target unchanged ("hold"), raise it ("hike"), or lower it ("cut"). In extraordinary circumstances the Board can also change the cash rate between scheduled meetings.
