How to read this RBA rate screen
Interpreting the table and chart
Table rows correspond to Reserve Bank of Australia decision dates scheduled over the next year or so.
- Implied post-meeting rate is the expected target for the cash rate after each meeting.
- Probability of hike/cut displays an approximate probability of a rate move at each meeting (step size defaults to 25bps moves but can be changed in the drop-down menu).
- # of hikes/cuts shows the cumulative number of hikes/cuts expected between now and each meeting (also dependent on the step size selected).
- Δ vs current (bps) shows the cumulative change in the cash rate target priced-in between now and each meeting in basis points (+12.5bps = +0.125%).
The chart plots the implied post-meeting rate across all upcoming meetings. An upward-sloping line indicates that markets are pricing further tightening over time; a flat line suggests an extended pause; a downward-sloping line indicates expected cuts. Use the screen to see what is currently priced in and to compare today’s expectations with those from previous weeks or months.
What this page measures
The table and chart reflect market pricing, not a forecast. When the site refers to “probabilities,” it is describing the likelihood implied by tradable instruments that reference future policy settings. In other words, it is a snapshot of consensus pricing that may be wrong and will often move as new information arrives.
The page focuses on scheduled meetings, but policy decisions can sometimes occur outside regular meetings under extraordinary circumstances. Market pricing may also reflect expectations about communication, guidance, and financial conditions even when the headline policy rate is unchanged.
What “probabilities” mean (and what they don’t)
The probabilities on this site are market-implied. They describe what is priced, not what will happen. Markets can overreact, underreact, or price scenarios that never occur. The goal is to translate market pricing into a clean, intuitive summary of expectations using a consistent step size.
Step size matters because markets may be pricing smaller adjustments, larger moves, or a mix of outcomes across meetings. The probability fields are therefore best read as approximations that help summarize pricing, rather than precise forecasts.
Methodology summary
At a high level, the site uses interest-rate market instruments that reference future policy settings to infer an expected policy-rate path meeting-by-meeting. Those implied levels are translated into an implied post-meeting path and a cumulative change versus current, along with approximate probabilities of discrete moves based on the selected step size.
Data is updated multiple times daily but is not “live”. If the most recent fetch is temporarily unavailable, the page may display the most recent cached values.
Who this is for
This tool is useful for anyone who wants a fast, market-based read on Australian monetary-policy expectations. It is commonly used by macro and rates-focused investors, traders, and researchers, as well as professionals who monitor RBA expectations as an input into decision-making.
Typical use cases include tracking how expectations change around major data releases and central bank communication, monitoring how pricing evolves between meetings, and forming scenarios for how the expected policy path may affect assets such as bonds, FX, equities, and credit.
About the RBA
The Reserve Bank of Australia is Australia's central bank. Its monetary policy objectives, set out in the Reserve Bank Act, are to contribute to the stability of the currency, the maintenance of full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people. The RBA pursues these objectives by targeting inflation of 2–3% on average over the medium term. Its main tool is the cash rate target (the overnight interest rate for unsecured lending between banks), supported by balance sheet operations and forward guidance.
The cash rate target sits at the centre of a rate corridor. The Exchange Settlement (ES) balance rate, set 10 basis points below the target, is the rate the RBA pays on overnight balances held by banks in their settlement accounts. The overnight repo rate, set 25 basis points above the target, is the rate at which the RBA lends overnight against eligible collateral. Together, these rates create a floor and ceiling that keep the actual traded overnight rate (tracked by the AONIA benchmark) close to the target.
Interest rate decisions are made by the Monetary Policy Board, which holds eight scheduled meetings per year (roughly every five to six weeks). At each meeting the Board may leave the cash rate target unchanged ("hold"), raise it ("hike"), or lower it ("cut"). In extraordinary circumstances the Board can also change the cash rate between scheduled meetings.
