How to read this Fed rate screen
Interpreting the table and chart
Table rows correspond to Fed decision dates scheduled over the next year or so.
- Implied post-meeting rate is the expected federal funds rate target band midpoint after each meeting.
- Probability of hike/cut displays an approximate probability of a rate move at each meeting (step size defaults to 25bps moves but can be changed in the drop-down menu).
- # of hikes/cuts shows the cumulative number of hikes/cuts expected between now and each meeting (also dependent on the step size selected).
- Δ vs current (bps) shows the cumulative change in the effective fed funds midpoint priced-in between now and each meeting in basis points (+12.5bps = +0.125%).
The chart plots the implied post-meeting rate across all upcoming meetings. An upward-sloping line indicates that markets are pricing further tightening over time; a flat line suggests an extended pause; a downward-sloping line indicates expected cuts. Use the screen to see what is currently priced in and to compare today’s expectations with those from previous weeks or months.
What this page measures
When is the next FOMC meeting, and what's priced in?
The table and chart reflect market pricing, not a forecast. When the site refers to “probabilities,” it is describing the likelihood implied by tradable instruments that reference future policy settings. In other words, it is a snapshot of consensus pricing that may be wrong and will often move as new information arrives.
The page focuses on scheduled meetings, but policy decisions can sometimes occur outside regular meetings under extraordinary circumstances. Market pricing may also reflect expectations about communication, guidance, and financial conditions even when the headline policy rate is unchanged.
What “probabilities” mean (and what they don’t)
The probabilities on this site are market-implied. They describe what is priced, not what will happen. Markets can overreact, underreact, or price scenarios that never occur. The goal is to translate market pricing into a clean, intuitive summary of expectations using a consistent step size.
Step size matters because markets may be pricing smaller adjustments, larger moves, or a mix of outcomes across meetings. The probability fields are therefore best read as approximations that help summarize pricing, rather than precise forecasts.
Methodology summary
At a high level, the site uses interest-rate market instruments that reference future policy settings to infer an expected policy-rate path meeting-by-meeting. Those implied levels are translated into an implied post-meeting path and a cumulative change versus current, along with approximate probabilities of discrete moves based on the selected step size.
Data is updated 3x per day. If the most recent fetch is temporarily unavailable, the page may display the most recent cached values.
Note: These probabilities are derived from OIS (overnight index swap) markets, not Fed funds futures contracts. These instruments are closely related and often move together, but this site's calculations are OIS-based throughout.
Who this is for
This tool is useful for anyone who wants a fast, market-based read on U.S. monetary-policy expectations. It is commonly used by macro and rates-focused investors, traders, and researchers, as well as professionals who monitor Fed expectations as an input into decision-making.
Typical use cases include tracking how expectations change around major data releases and Fed communication, monitoring how pricing evolves between meetings, and forming scenarios for how the expected policy path may affect assets such as bonds, FX, equities, and credit.
About the Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States. Its mandate, set by Congress in the Federal Reserve Act, is to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates — commonly called the "dual mandate," since stable prices and anchored long-term rates are treated as complementary outcomes of the same inflation objective. The FOMC's longer-run inflation goal is a straightforward 2% target, measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The Committee's primary tool is the target range for the federal funds rate (the overnight rate at which banks lend reserves to one another), supported by balance sheet policies and forward guidance.
The federal funds rate isn't set directly; the Fed instead uses a set of administered rates to keep the actual traded rate inside its target range. Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) —what the Fed pays banks on reserves held at the Fed— sits inside the range and is the primary lever nudging market rates toward target. The overnight reverse repo facility (ON RRP) rate is set at the bottom of the range, giving money market funds, government-sponsored enterprises, and other eligible counterparties a floor return that keeps rates from slipping below the band. Two facilities anchor the top of the range: the standing repo facility (SRF), where eligible institutions can borrow cash overnight against high-quality collateral, and the discount window's primary credit rate —commonly called "the discount rate"— the Fed's traditional lender-of-last-resort facility. The discount rate has been set equal to the top of the target range since March 2020, when the Fed narrowed the spread to reduce the stigma associated with discount window borrowing. Together, these tools keep the actual traded rate — the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) — within the FOMC's target range.
Interest rate decisions are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which has 12 voting members: the seven-member Board of Governors, each nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate to staggered 14-year terms; the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, a permanent voter who also serves as the Committee's Vice Chair; and four of the remaining 11 Reserve Bank presidents, who rotate onto the Committee for one-year terms. The FOMC normally meets eight times per year (roughly every six weeks). At each decision point the Committee may leave the target range unchanged ("hold"), raise it ("hike"), or lower it ("cut"). In extraordinary circumstances, the FOMC can also change rates between scheduled meetings.
