About RateProbability

RateProbability is a tool for traders, investors, and market analysts who need a clear view of how markets are pricing future central bank rate decisions.

Mission

The mission of RateProbability is to provide a professional-grade short-term rate tool for investors, traders, and analysts. The site provides a clean dashboard thoughtfully designed for monitoring expected central bank rate decisions. Such data can influence rates, currency, commodity, equity, and other markets. Sophisticated market participants/analysts deserve access to robust informational tools, but many cannot justify the cost of existing professional services; this site aims to address that gap. Whilst initially created with retail users in mind, the site is built to meet the quality and performance demanded by professionals.

What RateProbability Does

The tool uses publicly-available data from central banks and high-quality live OTC market data to compute and chart a market-implied path of the policy rates set by central banks.

Who Built This

RateProbability was created by a hobby developer with a background in economics/finance and hands-on trading experience, both professional and personal. They found that there are many useful tools not available to retail traders and began learning web development to create tools for their own use–and to share with others.

What Makes It Different

RateProbability is unique in that it extends a year into the future and provides multiple central banks' market-implied rate paths in one easy-to-read interface.

How to Use It and Its Limits

RateProbability is an informational tool to gauge consensus for the future path of central bank policy rates, and how that consensus has changed in recent days, weeks, and months. It is not meant as investment advice or as a forecast or trading signal. The tool only accounts for scheduled rate decisions and does not anticipate intra-meeting decisions. Implied rate paths can change with the release of economic data, central bank commentary, and financial conditions. Market consensus may be proven either correct or incorrect as rate decisions are released. Users should combine the tool with their own research and judgement.

Data, Methodology, and Updates

Output is computed on live market data throughout the day. Displayed data are updated three times per day for free users and every five minutes for Trader tier users. The underlying methodology bootstraps a discount-factor curve from OTC swap market data, then applies a meeting-window forward-rate interpolation to isolate the implied rate move priced for each meeting date. The exact calculation differs very slightly by central bank due to differences in available reference rates and market conventions, but the output is intended to be interpreted consistently across banks. See our Methodology page for expanded technical detail.

Underlying swap market data provided by Xignite.

RateProbability is a product of RateProbability Inc., a federally incorporated Canadian corporation.