How to read this ECB rate screen
Interpreting the table and chart
Table rows correspond to Governing Council decision dates scheduled over the next year or so.
- Implied post-meeting rate is the expected deposit facility rate after each meeting.
- Probability of hike/cut displays an approximate probability of a rate move at each meeting (step size defaults to 25bps moves but can be changed in the drop-down menu).
- # of hikes/cuts shows the cumulative number of hikes/cuts expected between now and each meeting (also dependent on the step size selected).
- Δ vs current (bps) shows the cumulative change in the deposit facility rate priced-in between now and each meeting in basis points (+12.5bps = +0.125%).
The chart plots the implied post-meeting rate across all upcoming meetings. An upward-sloping line indicates that markets are pricing further tightening over time; a flat line suggests an extended pause; a downward-sloping line indicates expected cuts. Use the screen to see what is currently priced in and to compare today’s expectations with those from previous weeks or months.
What this page measures
What's priced in for the ECB's next Governing Council meeting?
This tool aims to display the expected future decisions of the Governing Council regarding the deposit facility rate. The table and chart reflect market pricing, not a forecast. When the site refers to “probabilities,” it is describing the likelihood implied by tradable instruments that reference future policy settings. In other words, it is a snapshot of consensus pricing that may be wrong and will often move as new information arrives.
Rate path expectations typically change in response to economic data, governor commentary, and financial conditions. The page focuses on scheduled meetings, but policy decisions can sometimes occur outside regular meetings under extraordinary circumstances.
What “probabilities” mean (and what they don’t)
The probabilities on this site are market-implied. They describe what is priced, not what will happen. Markets can overreact, underreact, or price scenarios that never occur. The goal is to translate market pricing into a clean, intuitive summary of expectations using a consistent step size.
Step size matters because markets may be pricing smaller adjustments, larger moves, or a mix of outcomes across meetings. The probability fields are therefore best read as approximations that help summarize pricing, rather than precise forecasts.
Methodology summary
At a high level, the site uses interest-rate market instruments that reference future policy settings to infer an expected policy-rate path meeting-by-meeting. Those implied levels are translated into an implied post-meeting path and a cumulative change versus current, along with approximate probabilities of discrete moves based on the selected step size.
Data is updated frequently. If the most recent fetch is temporarily unavailable, the page may display the most recent cached values.
Note: These probabilities are derived from OIS (overnight index swap) markets, not €STR futures contracts. These instruments are closely related and often move together, but this site's calculations are OIS-based throughout.
Who this is for
This tool is useful for anyone who wants a fast, market-based read on euro-area monetary-policy expectations. It is commonly used by macro and rates-focused investors, traders, and researchers, as well as professionals who monitor ECB expectations as an input into decision-making.
Typical use cases include tracking how expectations change around major data releases and central-bank communication, monitoring how pricing evolves between meetings, and forming scenarios for how the expected policy path may affect assets such as bonds, FX, equities, and credit.
About the European Central Bank
The European Central Bank is responsible for monetary policy in the euro area. Its primary objective, set out in the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, is to maintain price stability, which the Governing Council defines as inflation of 2% over the medium term. The ECB's main tools are its three key policy rates, supported by asset purchase and refinancing programs and forward guidance about the future path of policy.
Of the three key rates, the Deposit Facility rate is the one that actually steers the policy stance; It's what the Eurosystem pays banks on overnight deposits, and the Governing Council has used it as the primary reference rate since a 2024 review of the operational framework. The Main Refinancing Operations (MRO) rate, at which banks can borrow for one week against broad collateral, is currently set 15 basis points above the Deposit Facility rate. The Marginal Lending Facility rate, the ceiling for overnight borrowing against collateral, sits a further 25 basis points above the MRO rate. Together, these three rates form a corridor that keeps the actual traded overnight rate —tracked by the €STR (euro short-term rate) benchmark— close to the Deposit Facility rate. A review of the framework's key parameters is expected in 2026.
Interest-rate decisions are made by the Governing Council, which comprises the ECB's six-member Executive Board plus the governors of the national central banks of all 21 euro area countries. Only the Executive Board holds a permanent vote; the 21 national governors share the remaining 15 voting rights on a monthly rotating basis, grouped according to their countries' economic and financial weight. The Governing Council usually holds monetary policy meetings around every six weeks. At those meetings it can leave the Deposit Facility rate unchanged ("hold"), raise it ("hike"), or lower it ("cut"). Intra-meeting decisions can and do occur under extraordinary circumstances. The Governing Council generally moves all three key rates together, but the spreads between them can and do change.
