How to read this ECB rate screen
Interpreting the table and chart
Table rows correspond to Governing Council decision dates scheduled over the next year or so.
- Implied post-meeting rate is the expected deposit facility rate after each meeting.
- Probability of hike/cut displays an approximate probability of a rate move at each meeting (step size defaults to 25bps moves but can be changed in the drop-down menu).
- # of hikes/cuts shows the cumulative number of hikes/cuts expected between now and each meeting (also dependent on the step size selected).
- Δ vs current (bps) shows the cumulative change in the deposit facility rate priced-in between now and each meeting in basis points (+12.5bps = +0.125%).
The chart plots the implied post-meeting rate across all upcoming meetings. An upward-sloping line indicates that markets are pricing further tightening over time; a flat line suggests an extended pause; a downward-sloping line indicates expected cuts. Use the screen to see what is currently priced in and to compare today’s expectations with those from previous weeks or months.
What this page measures
This tool aims to display the expected future decisions of the Governing Council regarding the deposit facility rate. The table and chart reflect market pricing, not a forecast. When the site refers to “probabilities,” it is describing the likelihood implied by tradable instruments that reference future policy settings. In other words, it is a snapshot of consensus pricing that may be wrong and will often move as new information arrives.
Rate path expectations typically change in response to economic data, governor commentary, and financial conditions. The page focuses on scheduled meetings, but policy decisions can sometimes occur outside regular meetings under extraordinary circumstances.
What “probabilities” mean (and what they don’t)
The probabilities on this site are market-implied. They describe what is priced, not what will happen. Markets can overreact, underreact, or price scenarios that never occur. The goal is to translate market pricing into a clean, intuitive summary of expectations using a consistent step size.
Step size matters because markets may be pricing smaller adjustments, larger moves, or a mix of outcomes across meetings. The probability fields are therefore best read as approximations that help summarize pricing, rather than precise forecasts.
Methodology summary
At a high level, the site uses interest-rate market instruments that reference future policy settings to infer an expected policy-rate path meeting-by-meeting. Those implied levels are translated into an implied post-meeting path and a cumulative change versus current, along with approximate probabilities of discrete moves based on the selected step size.
Data is updated multiple times daily but is not “live”. If the most recent fetch is temporarily unavailable, the page may display the most recent cached values.
Who this is for
This tool is useful for anyone who wants a fast, market-based read on euro-area monetary-policy expectations. It is commonly used by macro and rates-focused investors, traders, and researchers, as well as professionals who monitor ECB expectations as an input into decision-making.
Typical use cases include tracking how expectations change around major data releases and central-bank communication, monitoring how pricing evolves between meetings, and forming scenarios for how the expected policy path may affect assets such as bonds, FX, equities, and credit.
About the ECB
The European Central Bank is responsible for monetary policy in the euro area. Its primary objective is to maintain price stability, defined as inflation at 2% over the medium term. The ECB’s main tools are its key policy rates along with asset purchase programs, lending operations and guidance about future policy. The ECB aims to guide monetary policy using primarily the Deposit Facility (lowest rate) but also sets rates for Main Refinancing Operations and the Marginal Lending Facility (highest rate).
Interest-rate decisions are taken by the ECB’s Governing Council, which usually holds monetary policy meetings around every six weeks. At those meetings it can leave the deposit rate unchanged (“hold”), raise it (“hike”) or lower it (“cut”). Intra-meeting decisions can and do occur under extraordinary circumstances. The Governing Council generally moves all 3 key rates at the same time, but the spread between them can change.
