Interest rate markets continuously reprice expectations for where the Bank Rate will land after each Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. This page translates that pricing into a readable meeting-by-meeting rate path using the step size selected. Use it as a pricing dashboard—not a forecast—to see how expectations evolve.
Bank Rate – 12-Month Market Pricing
| Meeting | Implied Rate(Post-Meeting) | Probability of Hike(Cut) | # of Hikes(Cuts) | Δ vs Current (bps) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | — | — | — |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| — | — | — | — | — |
| — | — | — | — | — |
Table rows correspond to scheduled Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision dates over the next year.
The chart plots the implied post-meeting rate across all upcoming meetings. An upward-sloping line indicates that markets are pricing tightening over time; a flat line suggests an extended pause; a downward-sloping line indicates expected cuts. Use the screen to see what is currently priced in and to compare today’s expectations with those from previous weeks or months.
The table and chart reflect market pricing, not a forecast. When the site refers to “probabilities,” it is describing the likelihood implied by tradable instruments that reference future policy settings. In other words, it is a snapshot of consensus pricing that may be wrong and will often move as new information arrives.
The page focuses on scheduled meetings, but policy decisions can sometimes occur outside regular meetings under extraordinary circumstances. Market pricing may also reflect expectations about communication, guidance, and financial conditions even when the headline policy rate is unchanged.
The probabilities on this site are market-implied. They describe what is priced, not what will happen. Markets can overreact, underreact, or price scenarios that never occur. The goal is to translate market pricing into a clean, intuitive summary of expectations using a consistent step size.
Step size matters because markets may be pricing smaller adjustments, larger moves, or a mix of outcomes across meetings. The probability fields are therefore best read as approximations that help summarize pricing, rather than precise forecasts.
At a high level, the site uses interest-rate market instruments that reference future policy settings to infer an expected policy-rate path meeting-by-meeting. Those implied levels are translated into an implied post-meeting path and a cumulative change versus current, along with approximate probabilities of discrete moves based on the selected step size.
Data is updated daily. If the most recent fetch is temporarily unavailable, the page may display the most recent cached values.
This tool is useful for anyone who wants a fast, market-based read on UK monetary-policy expectations. It is commonly used by macro and rates-focused investors, traders, and researchers, as well as professionals who monitor Bank Rate expectations as an input into decision-making.
Typical use cases include tracking how expectations change around major data releases and MPC communication, monitoring how pricing evolves between meetings, and forming scenarios for how the expected policy path may affect assets such as gilts, GBP FX, equities, and credit.
The Bank of England is the United Kingdom’s central bank. Its primary objective is to promote and maintain monetary and financial stability. The Bank's price stability target (set by the UK government) is 2% inflation per year over the medium term, measured with the UK CPI. To pursue that objective, it sets Bank Rate and uses other tools as needed, including balance sheet operations and communications.
Interest-rate decisions are made by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which meets regularly through the year. At each decision point the Committee may leave Bank Rate unchanged (“hold”), raise it (“hike”), or lower it (“cut”). Dissents are common in MPC votes and the vote split is often scrutinized by markets.
