How to read this Fed rate screen
Interpreting the table and chart
Table rows correspond to Fed decision dates scheduled over the next year or so.
- Implied post-meeting rate is the expected effective federal funds rate after each meeting. This can be interpreted as a rough (inexact) proxy for the midpoint of the target band.
- Probability of hike/cut displays an approximate probability of a rate move at each meeting (step size defaults to 25bps moves but can be changed in the drop-down menu).
- # of hikes/cuts shows the cumulative number of hikes/cuts expected between now and each meeting (also dependent on the step size selected).
- Δ vs current (bps) shows the cumulative change in the effective fed funds rate priced-in between now and each meeting in basis points (+12.5bps = +0.125%).
The chart plots the implied post-meeting rate across all upcoming meetings. An upward-sloping line indicates that markets are pricing further tightening over time; a flat line suggests an extended pause; a downward-sloping line indicates expected cuts. Use the screen to see what is currently priced in and to compare today’s expectations with those from previous weeks or months.
What this page measures
The table and chart reflect market pricing, not a forecast. When the site refers to “probabilities,” it is describing the likelihood implied by tradable instruments that reference future policy settings. In other words, it is a snapshot of consensus pricing that may be wrong and will often move as new information arrives.
The page focuses on scheduled meetings, but policy decisions can sometimes occur outside regular meetings under extraordinary circumstances. Market pricing may also reflect expectations about communication, guidance, and financial conditions even when the headline policy rate is unchanged.
What “probabilities” mean (and what they don’t)
The probabilities on this site are market-implied. They describe what is priced, not what will happen. Markets can overreact, underreact, or price scenarios that never occur. The goal is to translate market pricing into a clean, intuitive summary of expectations using a consistent step size.
Step size matters because markets may be pricing smaller adjustments, larger moves, or a mix of outcomes across meetings. The probability fields are therefore best read as approximations that help summarize pricing, rather than precise forecasts.
Methodology summary
At a high level, the site uses interest-rate market instruments that reference future policy settings to infer an expected policy-rate path meeting-by-meeting. Those implied levels are translated into an implied post-meeting path and a cumulative change versus current, along with approximate probabilities of discrete moves based on the selected step size.
Data is updated multiple times daily but is not “live”. If the most recent fetch is temporarily unavailable, the page may display the most recent cached values.
Who this is for
This tool is useful for anyone who wants a fast, market-based read on U.S. monetary-policy expectations. It is commonly used by macro and rates-focused investors, traders, and researchers, as well as professionals who monitor Fed expectations as an input into decision-making.
Typical use cases include tracking how expectations change around major data releases and Fed communication, monitoring how pricing evolves between meetings, and forming scenarios for how the expected policy path may affect assets such as bonds, FX, equities, and credit.
About the Fed
The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States. Its mandate, set by Congress, is to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. The Fed currently interprets “stable prices” as inflation averaging 2% per year over time. To pursue these goals, it uses a range of tools. The main tool is the target range for the federal funds rate (the overnight interest rate at which banks lend reserves to each other), supported by balance sheet policies and forward guidance.
Interest rate decisions are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which normally meets eight times per year (roughly every six weeks). In extraordinary circumstances, the FOMC can also change rates between scheduled meetings. At each decision point the Committee may leave the target range unchanged (“hold”), raise it (“hike”), or lower it (“cut”).
