How to read this Bank of England rate screen
Interpreting the table and chart
The cards at the top give the quick read. Next decision in counts down to the next MPC announcement, Next meeting pricing shows the chance of a move at that meeting and how many basis points are priced, and Current Rate shows Bank Rate alongside the last published SONIA (Sterling Overnight Index Average). The 12-Month Outlook adds up everything priced over the next year and puts it in plain terms, such as “1 or 2 cuts.” On mobile, tap the Next meeting pricing card to flip to the 12-month view.
Table rows correspond to scheduled Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision dates over the next year or so.
- Implied post-meeting rate is the market-implied level of the BoE’s policy rate (Bank Rate) after each meeting.
- Probability of hike (cut) is the priced chance that a meeting delivers one move of the selected step size (25bps by default; change it with the Step menu at the top of the page). It’s based on how much additional change is priced between the previous meeting and this one: at a 25bp step, 15bps of extra easing priced at a meeting reads as a 60% chance of a cut. Cuts are shown in parentheses. The figure caps at 100%, and anything priced beyond one full step shows up in the # of hikes (cuts) column.
- # of hikes (cuts) is the running total of moves priced from today through each meeting, measured in steps of the size selected. It’s best used to read the odds of a move by a certain date, not just at one meeting. Say two meetings are left this year, with 0.60 hikes priced by the first and 1.00 by the second. The probability column shows 60% and 40%, so neither meeting looks certain on its own. Together, though, they add up to one full hike: the market is fully pricing a hike by year-end but is unsure about the timing. Read values above 1.00 the same way: 1.40 means one hike fully priced plus 40% of a second.
- Δ vs current (bps) is the cumulative change in Bank Rate priced between now and each meeting, in basis points (+12.5bps = +0.125%). For example, +75.0 at a June meeting next year means 75 basis points of hikes (three 25bp hikes) are priced by then.
The chart plots the implied post-meeting rate across all upcoming meetings. An upward-sloping line indicates that markets are pricing policy tightening over time, a flat line suggests an extended pause, and a downward-sloping line indicates expected cuts. Use the screen to see what is currently priced in and to compare today’s expectations with those from previous weeks or months.
Meeting dates and times are shown in Eastern time by default. To change that, use the globe icon next to the As of timestamp; your choice is remembered.
What this page measures
What's priced in for the Bank of England's next MPC meeting?
The next Bank of England MPC decision is on Thursday, November 5, 2026, at 7:00 AM EST. As of November 1, 2026, OIS pricing implies a 94% chance of a 25bp hike at that meeting. Over the next 12 months, markets price a net 105.5bp of hikes, or 4.22 hikes at a 25bp step.
This page’s data reflect market pricing, not a forecast: a snapshot of what tradable instruments imply about future policy, which can be wrong and will move as new information arrives.
The page focuses on scheduled meetings, but the MPC can act between meetings in extraordinary circumstances. Pricing can also move on Bank of England communication, guidance, and financial conditions even when the policy rate itself is unchanged. MPC votes are often split, and the vote count is published with each decision, so a split leaning toward a move can shift pricing for the next meeting even when Bank Rate is unchanged.
What “probabilities” mean (and what they don’t)
The probabilities on this site are market-implied: they’re derived from where rates trade, not from historical patterns, economic models, or any one forecast. They describe what is priced, not what will happen. Markets can overreact or underreact to developments, or price scenarios that never occur. Each meeting table row translates pricing into the chance of a single move of the selected step size.
Step size matters because markets may be pricing smaller adjustments, larger moves, or a mix of outcomes across meetings. The probabilities are best read as a clean summary of pricing rather than precise forecasts.
Next meeting, quarterly and historical views
The Next Meeting card splits pricing for the upcoming decision into its two most likely outcomes, shown as a bar chart and as a number line of how much of a move is priced. Its Current, 1w, 3w, 6w and 10w ago buttons show how that pricing has shifted; single meeting probability shifts over time reflect developments in both the overall policy change pricing and the relative weighting of meetings (timing of priced moves). The quarterly cards show the implied rate at the end of each of the next four quarters.
Meeting liveness gauge
In rates-market shorthand, a meeting is "live" when a policy move there is a realistic possibility, even if it isn't the most likely outcome. The liveness gauge applies this to the next scheduled meeting: it reads LIVE once the probability of a hike or cut (at your selected step size) reaches 25%, and DEAD below that.
There's no official threshold for "live." We use 25%, a one-in-four chance (6.25bps priced at the default 25bps step), because that is where a move stops being a long shot: by 25%, widely used probability-language scales, such as the IPCC's and those used by US and UK intelligence analysts, no longer describe an outcome as "very" or "highly" unlikely. It is still a judgment call, which is why the exact probability is always shown in the gauge's tooltip and elsewhere.
STRENGTH uses an asymmetric scale to show how firmly the meeting sits on its side of that line: STRONG under 10%, MODERATE 10–20% and WEAK 20–25% on the dead side; WEAK 25–40%, MODERATE 40–70% and STRONG 70% and above on the live side. The tooltip's Conviction score is a separate, outcome-neutral measure (the same one used on the comparison page): it is lowest at a 50/50 split and highest when pricing is near 0% or 100%.
Like every probability on this site, the gauge reflects market pricing, not a forecast. See the methodology page for the full method, the reasoning behind each cutoff, and its limitations.
Methodology summary
RateProbability’s figures are derived from overnight index swaps (OIS): interest rate contracts that banks, dealers and investment funds trade to hedge or take positions on where a central bank’s policy rate is headed. We combine that pricing with official policy rates and other inputs to build a meeting-by-meeting path for where the market expects the policy rate to land after each decision, along with the implied chance of a move at each one. More information is available on the methodology page.
Note: these probabilities come from OIS markets, not SONIA futures. The two are closely related and typically move together, but this site’s calculations are OIS-based throughout.
Data is updated 3x per day. If the latest data is temporarily unavailable, the page shows the most recent cached values.
Who this is for
Built for macro and rates traders, investors, researchers, and anyone who needs a fast, market-based read on what’s priced for the Bank of England, whether that’s tracking the reaction to a data release or MPC communication, or weighing what the expected path means for gilts, sterling, equities and credit.
About the Bank of England
The Bank of England is the United Kingdom’s central bank. Its primary objective is to promote and maintain monetary and financial stability. The Bank's price stability target (set by the UK government) is 2% inflation per year over the medium term, measured with the UK CPI. To pursue that objective, it sets Bank Rate and uses other tools as needed, including balance sheet operations and communications.
Bank Rate is transmitted to short-term market rates primarily through the remuneration of reserves: the Bank pays Bank Rate in full on the reserves balances that commercial banks, building societies, and broker-dealers hold with it, which anchors overnight market rates close to Bank Rate without relying on a corridor of penalty rates. As a secondary, on-demand backstop for firms managing short-term liquidity needs between the Bank's regular market-wide operations, the Operational Standing Facility (OSF) offers an overnight lending facility, currently priced at Bank Rate plus 15 basis points against high-quality collateral, and an overnight deposit facility, currently priced at Bank Rate minus 15 basis points. Together, these tools keep the actual traded overnight rate, tracked by the SONIA benchmark, close to Bank Rate.
Interest-rate decisions are made by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), whose nine members (the Governor, three Deputy Governors, the Bank's Chief Economist, and four external members appointed by the Chancellor) meet eight times a year, roughly every six weeks. At each decision point the Committee may leave Bank Rate unchanged ("hold"), raise it ("hike"), or lower it ("cut"). Dissents are common in MPC votes and the vote split is often scrutinized by markets.
